The impact on the performance of growth curve models of changes in parameter re-estimation period and other factors

A simulation model of a real electricity supply undertaking was used to provide a financial performance measure for growth curve forecasting models. The impact on financial performance was determined when changes were made in (1) the method of estimating the model parameters, (2) the period between re-estimations, (3) the growth curve fitted and (4) the amount of smoothing of the demand time-series. The response to variation of the parameter review period was found to behave surprisingly, in that it exhibited different signs for two different estimation methods. Changes in re-estimation period explained somewhat more of the variation in performance than did a change in growth curve. Correcting the demand series for conditions which were known to be abnormal improved performance.     

数值法确定化学反应速度常数(Ⅰ)——数值法求曲线斜率的方法

本文介绍一种数值法求曲线斜率的方法。在由实验所得的曲线(f(x))上任意点M两侧以△X间距取点,求得△f(x)/△X,然后以△f(x)/△X对△X作图,得一平滑曲线,当△X=0时所对应的△f(x)/△X即为M点的斜率,该方法计算简便相对误差<1％。     

一类泛圈图

本文证明了如果G是2连通无爪图,G不是圈,n=|v(G)|>q,G的每个导出子图A都满足φ(a_1,a_2),且G中不存在W′作为其导出子图,则G是泛圈图。     

基于截面线的隐式曲面多边形化

提出了基于截面线的隐式曲面多边形化方法,用一系列平行平面去截隐式曲面,根据正负法产生截面线,再对截面线进行拓扑重构和几何重构,实现了隐式曲面的多边形化,与传统的隐式曲面绘制方法相比,所提出的方法具有效率高,适合于交互设计等特点。     

Relationship between the specific surface area of rust and the electrochemical behavior of rusted steel in a wet-dry acid corrosion environment

The relationship between the specific surface area (SSA) of rust and the electrochemical behavior of rusted steel under wet-dry acid corrosion conditions was investigated. The results showed that the corrosion current density first increased and then decreased with increasing SSA of the rust during the corrosion process. The structure of the rust changed from single-layer to double-layer, and the γ-FeOOH content decreased in the inner layer of the rust with increasing corrosion time; by contrast, the γ-FeOOH content in the outer layer was constant. When the SSA of the rust was lower than the critical SSA corresponding to the relative humidity during the drying period, condensed water in the micropores of the rust could evaporate, which prompted the diffusion of O₂ into the rust and the following formation process of γ-FeOOH, leading to an increase of corrosion current density with increasing corrosion time. However, when the SSA of the rust reached or exceeded the critical SSA, condensate water in the micro-pores of the inner layer of the rust could not evaporate which inhibited the diffusion of O₂ and decreased the γ-FeOOH content in the inner rust, leading to a decrease of corrosion current density with increasing corrosion time.     

初始温度条件下全尾胶结膏体损伤本构模型

膏体充填料到达采场初始温度不同是矿山存在的普遍现象,不同初始温度条件下膏体力学特性及应力-应变关系直接影响到矿山采充周期及相邻采场开采时贫化指标.通过对初始温度为2、20、35和50℃的硬化膏体进行单轴抗压强度试验,获得不同初始温度下充填体应力-应变演化曲线.根据理论推导和试验结果,建立了不同初始温度下膏体损伤本构模型,通过本构模型参数回归,提出膏体温度-时间耦合损伤本构模型.最后,采用Comsol数值模拟软件,将温度-时间耦合损伤本构模型嵌入solid mechanics模块,对单轴抗压试验进行数值模拟,模拟应力-应变曲线与试验结果较为吻合,验证了所提出本构模型的可靠性.     

不同类型真假词的N400效应

采用不透明词和衍生假词(由不透明词词素颠倒而得的假词)的词汇判断任务,来考察真假词的N400词汇效应,不透明词和衍生假词的运用排除了各种语义整合难度的差异对N400的影响.研究发现:衍生假词比不透明词诱发了更大的N400,而且无论真词是否透明,假词总比真词诱发更大的N400.     

公路平曲线参数对车辆轨迹和速度的影响规律

为得到弯道几何参数对切弯时车辆轨迹和速度的影响,构建了切弯效用的量测指标———曲中速度增量和曲中轨迹半径增量,然后用"公路-驾驶人-车辆"仿真系统模拟了跟弯和切弯2种模式下的弯道行驶过程,得到了弯道转角、半径、路幅宽度、弯道长度与切弯效用之间的关系曲线,结果表明:①切弯效用在转角ΔA=20°时最大,然后随着ΔA增加而迅速衰减.②对于低于10°的小转角弯道,即使是跟弯行驶,轨迹半径仍大于弯道半径,只有ΔA>20°时,轨迹半径才会与弯道半径一致.③存在一个临界转角ΔA0C,当ΔA<ΔA0C时,路宽的增加才会提高切弯效用.④转角一定的情况下,切弯效用随弯道半径的增加而衰减,并且转角越大,衰减越迅速.⑤对于30m半径的急弯,不管路宽和转角取何值,切弯都可以提高通过速度.⑥切弯效用随弯道长度的增加而减小,弯道长度超过临界值时,切弯效用为零.     

蝴蝶定理线束夹角表达形式的研究

利用射影几何有关线束与点列的交比关系,给出广义蝴蝶定理的线束夹角的三角函数及斜率表示形式,并且统一给出蝴蝶定理的线段表示新形式.     

富勒醇聚醚聚氨酯的热性能

通过水溶性多羟基化合物C60(OH)n和聚醚聚氨酯(PEO—PU)预聚体反应合成了一系列新型的C60星形聚醚聚氨酯，并用傅里叶红外分析(FTIR)、差式扫描量热分析(DSC)、热重分析(TGA)等手段对其性能进行了表征．结果表明，C60星形聚醚聚氨酯比线性的聚醚聚免酯具有更高的柔顺性和热稳定性；随着聚氧化乙烯数均分子量Mn的增加，C60星形聚醚聚氨酯的玻璃化转变温度(Tg)降低，热分解温度(td)提高．